Recruitonomics Roundup — February 2026
In February our team kept you in the loop on labor markets and productivity around the world — here are the posts you might have missed!
Here’s all of the new content we posted in February. Keep reading for data releases coming up in March and a teaser for some exciting posts from Julius Probst, PhD!
Spain's Job Upgrade: Will Labor Quantity Shift To Quality?
Julius Probst, PhD explores Spain's remarkable post-pandemic labor market recovery and how better jobs and productivity in 2026 can maintain that momentum.
Feb 2026 UK Labor Market Update: Job Losses Bottoming Out?
On the surface, January’s jobs report wasn’t good — and that is exactly how it will be portrayed by the media: The unemployment rate rose to its highest level in years, vacancies are flat, and job growth has been negative for five months in a row.
January 2026 Jobs Day: A Surprisingly Strong Start to 2026
January’s jobs report suggests a strong start for 2026 and a needed rebound from a weak 2025. Nonfarm payrolls rose by 130,000, unemployment fell slightly to 4.3% and the employment-to-population ratio rose to a near-high of 80.9%, all hallmark signs of a positive jobs report.
AI Productivity: A Boon For UK's Weakening Labor Market?
Is the UK entering a new economic cycle? This is the first of a series of blog posts examining the effects of AI on the labor market and growth.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases and Events
March 4: US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary Report
March 6: US Employment Situation Report, EU GDP/Employment
Mid-March: EU Wage Growth
March 19: UK Labour Market Report
March 27: US Personal Income and Outlays Release
March 31: EU Inflation
In Recent News…
Julius Probst, PhD
Are tariffs higher or lower?
You might be weary of tariffs, but they have been all over the news again.
Why? Because the Supreme Court has ruled that Trump’s tariffs are illegal under IEEPA. Companies might be entitled to get back about $170 billion in tariff revenue the government collected in recent months if the U.S. Court of International Trade decides in their favor.
Does this mean tariffs are lower now? The answer is: not really!
Trump used Section 122 instead to impose a broad tariff of 10% on the rest of the world and plans to bring it up to 15%. However, these tariffs are only temporary and might hold for just 150 days unless Congress votes to extend them (this is unlikely to happen before the Midterm elections, though, as tariffs are extremely unpopular with voters).
Several trade deals that the U.S. administration agreed upon with other countries might need to be renegotiated. The global trade environment thus remains complex as businesses navigate uncertainty about the tariffs they face.
What does that mean for recruiters?
This volatility is bad for the private sector and harms the labor market. Tariffs are at their highest since the 1930s and American companies must make difficult decisions on who trade with and where to invest as the landscape is changing frequently. Business leaders will be cautious to add headcount in such a volatile macroeconomic environment. Therefore, expect recruitment to remain sluggish for now.
AI automation and software developers
An AI research note made headlines this week and moved financial markets. It suggested that the U.S. might experience permanently high unemployment and a declining stock market due to white-collar replacement: A Great Depression scenario caused by AI.
We find this economic scenario questionable and plan to publish several pieces on the economics and labor market implications of AI, pushing back on the doomsday narrative. Coming to your inbox soon!
For now, suffice it to say that many stories about AI are exaggerated or outright misleading.
Example: With Claude, nobody needs software developers anymore since the tool can do it way better, right?
Probably wrong. Software developers are more productive and the tasks they perform have changed dramatically thanks to AI. As it turns out, companies still need them. Hiring for software developers has outperformed the broader jobs market.
The divergence is even more pronounced in the U.K. than in the U.S., with total job postings down by 20% due a weakening labor market while postings for software developers are up by 10%!
What does that mean for recruiters?
Don’t believe everything you hear about the AI jobs Armageddon!