Recruitonomics Roundup — March 2026

In March we reported on a bad US jobs report and the impact of AI and the war in Iran on global labor markets. Here’s what you might have missed!

Here is all of the new content we posted in March. Keep reading for data releases coming up in April and some more cutting-edge reporting from Julius Probst, PhD.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases and Events

• April 3: US Employment Situation Report

• April 10: US CPI

• April 16: Eurozone CPI

• April 17: Eurozone Labour Force Survey

• April 21: UK Labour Market overview

• April 22: UK CPI

• April 28: US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary Report

• April 30: US GDP statistics

In recent news:

Julius Probst, PhD

The hire rate in the U.S. at its lowest in 15 years

Despite the U.S. being a net oil exporter, American households are not shielded from the oil price shock. Higher energy prices are driving up inflation. A decline in consumer spending will negatively affect the labor market. Survey data shows that American workers have already been quite pessimistic about their job prospects for a while. No wonder, since the hiring rate just fell to its lowest level in 15 years!

While layoffs (and quits) remain low - characteristic of the low-churn labor market – a further decline in hiring will ultimately lead to higher unemployment.

British consumer sentiment turns sour

Consumer sentiment in the U.K. has been in the doldrums for a while. Economic growth was mediocre in recent years while hiring plummeted and the unemployment rate rose to a decennial high of 5.2%. Nevertheless, the economy was finally turning the corner in the beginning of the year after the Labour government did not hike taxes as much as anticipated. This seemingly improved economic sentiment.

Well, so much for that! With global oil prices soaring due to the conflict in the Middle East, consumers in the U.K. are turning sour again. The Consumer Confidence Index shows that sentiment fell by 6 points to a balance of -21 in March, the lowest in a year. Higher energy prices and soaring interest rates will be an added financial burden to many households for months to come. This can only mean one thing: less income for discretionary spending — think fewer restaurant visits, fewer trips to the pub or the movies, or potentially one less vacation as airplane tickets are soaring.

Economists now anticipate the global oil price shock to add 1 percentage point to inflation and subtract about 0.5 percentage points from U.K. GDP growth this year (with more negative oil price scenarios suggesting even bigger effects). No wonder consumers are in a worse mood again!

While other sentiment indicators suggest that U.K. employers are also getting more pessimistic about the economic outlook, data from the Lloyds Banking Group has a surprise in store. Their business barometer shows that the share of employers expecting to increase headcount ticked up quite noticeably in February compared with the previous year (from 51%to 60%.

For now, businesses may simply try to wait it out and refrain from imposing additional hiring freezes or layoffs. This would be good news from a labor market perspective, especially since hiring has already been so weak for a prolonged period.

German inflation jumps

Germany — and continental Europe — are equally exposed to higher commodity prices. The German consumer price index (CPI) unexpectedly jumped from 1.9% in February to 2.7% in March, its highest leap in more than two years. While this is preliminary data and the subcomponents of the inflation data will only be published in April, there is no doubt that higher energy prices are driving the surge!