Recruitonomics Roundup — April 2026

In April we reported on the global oil shock, U.K. job losses, and how the AI infrastructure boom is creating hiring challenges in regional labor markets in the U.S.

Here is all of the new content we posted in April. Keep reading for data releases coming up in May and other interesting labor market news brought to you by the Recruitonomics team.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases and Events

• May 5: US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS)

• May 8: US Employment Situation Report

• May 12: US CPI

• May 19: UK Labour Market Overview

• May 20: UK CPI

• May 20: Eurozone CPI

• May 28: US GDP statistics (second estimate, Q1 2026)

In recent news:

Julius Probst, PhD

Americans increasingly worried about the job market

The Recruitonomics team has written a lot about the weakening of the U.S. labor market over the last couple of years. No wonder, then, that Americans have become more pessimistic about their own job market prospects. The University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers show that the number of people who think they will lose their job within the next five years has risen substantially.

Interestingly, the data is broken out by level of education. Workers with college degrees have steadily become more pessimistic about the job market since mid-2023, just a few months after the release of ChatGPT. They believe that the probability of job loss within five years is now closer to 25%, compared to about 15% a few years ago. While the macro environment has deteriorated as well, this might suggest that educated workers themselves think of AI as a labor-displacing technology, at least in some cases.

The effect of the oil price shock is also already showing up in the chart. As of this March, workers with less than a high school degree are assessing their job loss probability as being considerably higher compared to before. This is in line with our previous piece on the oil shock, which outlined the different sectors that will suffer the most from rising inflation, higher interest rates, and lower growth. With transportation, construction, hospitality, and retail being particularly exposed, it is not surprising that less-educated workers are suddenly fearing for their labor market prospects.

Germany’s hospitality sector is finally recovering

Germany’s hospitality sector has suffered a lot in recent years: First the pandemic, then the energy crisis in Europe weighed on the economic outlook, with inflation surging. With Germany’s economy being stagnant since 2020 and households not spending, employment in accommodation and food services has remained below pre-pandemic levels for more than five years.

To support businesses in the sector, the German government decided to reduce the VAT rate on food served in restaurants and catering services permanently from 19% to 7% on January 1^st, 2026 (the 7% VAT was already in effect during the pandemic, but only as a temporary measure).

Thanks to the slightly better economic outlook this year as the German stimulus starts to kick in, hospitality looks set for a recovery, depending on whether German households will loosen their purse strings and start spending. In terms of employment, the sector is now finally back to where it was before COVID-19 hit the global economy six years ago.

Youth unemployment ticking up in Europe, but some markets defy the trend

For now, youth unemployment across Europe remains historically low. But as growth has slowed in recent years and the labor market has weakened, youth unemployment has increased somewhat relative to where it was in 2022 (and 2019). This is particularly true for countries that have experienced a stagnant economy like Finland and Romania, for example.

But there are some economies defying the trend, particularly Southern Europe, which has experienced a spectacular economic recovery from the pandemic and subsequent energy crisis. There are several factors driving this, including the tourism boom, the rise of digital nomadism, lower exposure to the U.S. trade war, and a labor cost advantage over Northern European economies.

In any case, strong economic growth together with adverse demographics — Southern European populations are stagnant or even shrinking — can explain why youth unemployment in Italy, Spain, Greece, and Cyprus has continued to decline by several percentage points since 2022 even as it has edged up elsewhere.