Recruitonomics Roundup — July 2026
In July we discussed the economic impact of the World Cup, the hardest-to-fill occupations in the U.S., and the causes of the labor market slump for young people — AI or working from home.
In case you haven’t seen this: The Recruitonomics team is going to host a Substack live event on Aug. 7 to break down the U.S. July jobs report, released earlier that morning. Use this link to join us on the day!
And below, you can find an overview of all the articles we published in July. Keep reading for data releases coming up in August and other interesting recruitment and labor market insights.
Remote Work or AI? What's Really Driving the Job Crunch for Young Workers
Young jobseekers around the world are currently struggling as job opportunities have dried up. Many blame AI, but might it actually be remote work causing the issue?
The 10 Hardest Jobs to Fill in the US
Appcast's Recruiting Difficulty Score reveals which roles recruiters struggle the most to fill — and why healthcare dominates the top 10.
UK: July 2026 — Job Market Stabilizes, Offering Relief for the New Burnham Government
The first jobs report brings some welcome news for the Burnham government — flat unemployment, contained job losses, and cooling wage growth.
Does the World Cup Create Jobs in Host Cities?
Our analysis says no. In our second piece on the World Cup, we show that the event has no meaningful effect on local labor markets — even when just considering hospitality.
The World Cup Hiring Boom That Wasn’t
The World Cup hasn't sparked the U.S. hospitality hiring boom analysts expected — and economic research says it never would. The first piece in a multi-part series on the event.
Stop Freaking Out About the Falling Labor Share
Julius Probst, PhD explains why the much-feared collapse in workers' share of the economy is largely a mirage created by incomplete data.
Northern Ireland Is Winning Brexit
Julius Probst, PhD examines how Northern Ireland's dual market access since Brexit has fueled the U.K.'s fastest-growing regional economy — and its tightest labor market.
Job Growth Momentum Hits a Wall
Sam Kuhn breaks down a softer June jobs report, as hiring came in below expectations and hospitality lost jobs even with the World Cup underway.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases and Events
August 7: US Employment Situation Report
August 12: US CPI
August 13: UK GDP (monthly estimate, June 2026)
August 14: Eurozone GDP (flash estimate, Q2 2026) and employment data
August 18: UK Labour Market Overview
August 19: UK CPI
August 19: Eurozone CPI (final July reading)
August 19: Eurozone vacancy statistics
In recent news:
Julius Probst, PhD
Do Not Trust Vibes-Based Data!
The U.S. economy continues to perform extraordinarily well. Underlying GDP — a measure of domestic demand in the economy — shows that the U.S. was growing at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the first half of this year. And while it is true that the data center construction boom is contributing, most of the growth is driven by consumer spending. This shouldn’t surprise us, given that consumption makes up almost 70% of the economy. Even as the oil shock has driven up inflation globally, American consumers have not tightened their belts in a meaningful way so far.
Here's the weird thing, though. You wouldn’t know it from observing Americans’ spending patterns, but consumer confidence in the U.S. is currently at an all-time low. The University of Michigan index shows a value as low as during the Great Recession in 2009. Even the alternative Conference Board measure shows a steep decline over the last couple of years. Neither reflects in any meaningful way that the economy continues to perform well, that the stock market has risen for years, and that the labor market is close to full employment.
We also do not believe the popular theory that most of the consumer spending today is driven by the top 10% of earners, while everybody else is suffering. Data from bank card transactions shows that consumer outlays have held up well across all income groups.
Vibes are simply bad! And this also extends to the labor market. Even with unemployment at a historic low, fears about a labor market downturn remain historically elevated. Just as with the other metric, we need to go back all the way to 2008 to see a similarly high share of negative responses.
Global shocks and AI obviously play a role in shaping current sentiment. A lot of data shows that workers have FOBO — the fear of becoming obsolete — as AI disrupts the workplace. Sentiment is also increasingly shaped by partisanship: when your side holds the White House, the economy looks great; when the other party runs things, it looks bleak. If the Michigan survey really is biased toward Democrats, that would help explain the grim numbers.
Either way, there has been a fundamental disconnect between sentiment data and how the economy is actually performing. This vibecession, as some economists have called it, has now been going on for several years. But there is currently no reason to believe that the economy or labor market will fall off a cliff anytime soon — I know, famous last words! GDP is expected to grow at more than 2% this year, payroll employment has picked up in recent months following a severe slowdown at the end of last year, and high stock market valuations are boosting consumer spending. Moreover, data center construction has taken off, creating tight regional labor markets where the investments are taking place. California’s economy is growing at a stunning rate again, buoyed by an inflow of capital into the AI economy. Experienced workers with AI skills are in high demand, seeing their compensation soar.
When it comes to which indicators are more reliable, it’s an easy pick for me. Sentiment data has been untrustworthy for years now. To get a sense of where the economy is headed, look at what consumers are spending their money on, and where companies are hiring and who they're bringing on. Actions speak louder than words!