Recruitonomics Roundup — June 2026

In June we reported on Australia's data center boom and the rising demand for blue-collar workers. We also discussed the U.S. housing market and the wage pain caused by the oil shock.

First things first! The Recruitonomics team is going to host a Substack live event on Aug. 7 to break down the U.S. July jobs report, released earlier that morning. Here is the link to the event. Self-recommending!

And below, you can find a roundup of the articles we published in June. Keep reading for data releases coming up this month and other interesting recruitment and labor market insights.

Upcoming Economic Data Releases and Events

• July 2: US Employment Situation Report

• July 14: US CPI

• July 16: UK GDP (monthly estimate, May 2026)

• July 17: Eurozone CPI (final June reading)

• July 21: UK Labour Market Overview

• July 22: UK CPI

• July 30: US GDP statistics (advance estimate, Q2 2026)

• July 30: Eurozone GDP (preliminary flash, Q2 2026)

In recent news:

Julius Probst, PhD

The UK: a nation in flux

The U.K. right now is very much a country in flux. There is currently no acting James Bond, Doctor Who, or prime minister for that matter. Yes, I know. I’m not the first one to make this joke.

Well, at least the political vacuum should be resolved by the end of summer. Andy Burnham — former mayor of Greater Manchester — managed to score a seat in Parliament by decisively winning a by-election in June. This positioned him to launch a leadership challenge against the battered prime minister. Starmer, in anticipation of what was coming, decided to resign on his own. He was very much a lame duck at the end, with a government in paralysis. Despite a large majority in Parliament, Starmer could not push through meaningful change like welfare reform due to opposition in his own ranks. Burnham is widely expected to win the Labour leadership contest to become the next U.K. prime minister by August.

While we do not know many of his policy ideas yet, there is one thing that is certain: Burnham is quite serious about devolution — giving the U.K.’s local authorities greater control over tax and spending decisions, with a focus on infrastructure investment. Economists generally agree that economic underperformance since the Global Financial Crisis is related to insufficient public investment, with the U.K. spending significantly less than the average OECD economy.

Another problem is that the British tax system is highly centralized. Local authorities in the U.K. collect a tiny fraction of tax revenue relative to what is standard across advanced economies. Consequently, big infrastructure projects like the Elizabeth line are typically geared toward London, while the U.K.’s other large metropolitan areas like Birmingham and Manchester are not getting a big enough slice of the pie. This is problematic for two reasons. First, the U.K. has fallen behind Germany and France largely because most cities outside the “Golden Triangle” (the London-Cambridge-Oxford arc) have extremely low levels of worker productivity. This is a major reason why living standards remain low in most other regions. Second, due to the collapse in London's housing construction, a significant share of employment growth in since 2020 has happened in lower-productivity regions, with Greater Manchester and Liverpool taking the lead. While this is obviously good news, infrastructure spending needs to follow to make these cities more productive.

If the U.K. wants to be more serious about growing the rest of the country, devolution of power might be the way to do it. Previous governments have approached the topic halfheartedly. In his speech on Monday, Burnham made it clear that he wants to go all the way. It remains to be seen, though, what policies his government will implement to achieve this goal.

Europe’s economies are increasingly suffering from climate change

While the last heat wave is barely over, Europe needs to prepare for another one coming our way in about a week’s time. June brought blistering temperatures to Europe — reaching 36°C in the U.K., 40°C in Germany, and 41°C in France (97°F, 104°F, and 106°F for our American readers). With heat records broken frequently since the beginning of this century, it is abundantly clear that climate change is playing a role. The current global temperature now exceeds its long-term average by more than 1°C.

Europe specifically is heating up faster than other regions, and the continent is not prepared. Many houses in Northern Europe do not have air conditioning (AC) because historically it simply wasn’t needed. The same is true for public facilities — schools, retirement homes, and even hospitals. Buses and trains are not running since they also have insufficient climate control and cannot cope with the heat.

The damage from climate change is increasingly weighing on economic growth and, by extension, the llabor market. Countries like France are recording excess deaths in the thousands because of the heat wave. The hot summers are also lowering agricultural production, driving up food prices. This leaves households with less spending power for other items. Think lower hiring demand in hospitality and retail.

The Rhine River — one of Europe’s largest waterways — is used for shipping, with manufacturing plants in Germany relying on it to get supplies. In recent years, frequent droughts have led to falling water levels, leaving barges able to carry only a fraction of their regular load. This supply-chain disruption is hitting Germany’s industrial sector again this year, with knock-on effects for recruitment. And economic research shows that worker productivity declines for every degree above 20°C. Working from home becomes challenging without AC. As the economic costs of adapting to climate change rise each year, Europe had better act quickly.