You can find below the list of articles we published in October. Keep reading for data releases coming up this month and other interesting economic news and labor market insights.
Labour Gave Us a Nothingburger Budget
Julius Probst, PhD breaks down Labour’s latest Budget, which does little harm but offers almost nothing to revive UK economic growth or hiring.
How Stocks Are Propping Up the US Labor Market
Julius Probst, PhD breaks down how the AI-fueled stock boom has lifted consumer spending and job growth in the U.S. and what happens if it ends.
UK: October 2026 — Is the Job Market Finally Stabilizing?
Julius Probst, PhD breaks down the latest UK jobs report, where payroll growth and falling unemployment offer hope even as vacancies keep sinking.
The UK’s Jobless Recovery
Julius Probst, PhD breaks down why the UK economy keeps growing while the labor market sheds jobs and how rising labor costs and AI adoption fit in.
September Job Growth — Pretty Meh!
The AI buildout is keeping construction and manufacturing hiring alive as the rest of the labor market cools approaching year-end.
The 30 Fastest-Growing Jobs in America Are Not What You Think
Julius Probst, PhD examines which occupations are projected to grow fastest through 2035, from healthcare roles to data scientists and solar installers.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases and Events
November 6: US Employment Situation Report
November 10: US CPI
November 12: UK GDP (Q3 2026, first quarterly estimate)
November 13: Eurozone GDP (flash estimate, Q3 2026) and employment data
November 17: UK Labour Market Overview
November 18: UK CPI
November 18: Eurozone CPI (final October reading)
November 25: US GDP (second estimate, Q3 2026)
In recent news:
Julius Probst, PhD
Spooky season is upon us
No, not Halloween — that’s over. I’m talking about the midterms! The entire world is probably watching whether Americans will endorse or reject the Trump administration’s agenda in the upcoming elections. More than a year ago, it felt unlikely that Democrats would ever get a majority in the Senate. But things have changed. Following trade wars and actual wars, living costs in the U.S. have skyrocketing, while wage growth has weakened. A rather toxic combination for Republicans heading into the midterms. If there’s one thing that Americans absolutely hate, it’s high gas prices. Lately, they’ve surged: Recent data shows an average gasoline price of almost $4.30 per gallon compared to under $3 at the beginning of the year — an increase of about 45%.
We also know from surveys that Americans have turned on tariffs, the conflict with Iran, and even Trump’s immigration agenda. They are also much more skeptical about AI data centers than the current administration. As a result, Democrats’ odds of winning the Senate have markedly improved. According to prediction market data, Democrats are now the favorites, with markets giving them a 70% chance of winning the Senate (and a 93% chance of winning the House). Most data therefore points toward a relatively large blue wave. While prediction markets are not always perfect, economic research shows that they often have better forecast accuracy than experts.
Another spooky fact: average consumer spending on Halloween
How much did you spend on candy and costumes last weekend? Be honest! And have you ever wondered how much everybody else is spending? Well, we have an answer to that. According to the National Retail Federation, the average spending per person is now around $115, up from $86 in 2019 (a 33% increase). While that sounds like a significant surge, we need to take the general rise in prices into account, especially given the high-inflation environment since the pandemic. The red line in the chart below does precisely that. Adjusted for inflation, spending on Halloween in 2026 seems no higher than in 2012.
France’s economy is grinding to a halt…
France is currently one of the troublemakers from a Eurozone perspective. Its public debt is approaching dangerous levels, while the government is unable to pass reforms that would improve the fiscal and economic outlook. As a result, interest rates on French debt have surged, with potential financial stability implications for the rest of the Eurozone. Meanwhile, protests have erupted all over the country. Unsurprisingly, this has negatively affected consumer sentiment. Who wants to go shopping when cars nearby are burning? In fact, the confidence indicator has plummeted to its lowest level on record, dropping even below where it stood during the inflationary surge in 2022.
The combination of surging interest rates, excessive public debt, and nationwide protests is now weighing on economic growth, which was already sluggish. After reasonably strong performance throughout 2023 and 2024, the economy has shrunk by more than 0.5% on an annualized basis both in Q1 and Q3 (while Q2 was negative).
…and the labor market is feeling it
The economic slowdown is already having a noticeable impact on the labor market. France’s unemployment rate has surged by almost one percentage point relative to three years ago and is now at its highest level in more than five years, well exceeding 8%. Salaried headcount has fallen by more than 100,000, and hiring remains weak. All indicators point toward further softening of labor market conditions if economic momentum doesn’t improve soon.
