Here are all the articles that we published in September. Keep reading for data releases coming up next month and other interesting economic news and labor market insights.
What the Latest Projections Say About the Future of AI-Exposed Jobs
In this piece, Julius Probst, PhD examines what new BLS employment projections reveal about wages, AI exposure, and which jobs will grow or shrink.
UK: September 2026 — GDP Keeps Growing Thanks to AI as Job Losses Mount
Julius Probst, PhD breaks down why UK output keeps beating expectations while payrolls shrink, and what a segmented labor market means for hiring.
Germany's Economy Is Reviving as the AfD Surges
Germany’s fiscal stimulus is now clearly boosting growth, and labor demand is picking up. But the far right’s election victory in Saxony-Anhalt is overshadowing the brighter economic outlook.
August Job Growth Comes in Hotter Than Expected
Julius Probst, PhD and Andrew Flowers break down a surprisingly strong August jobs report, with hospitality and construction driving the gains while the tech sector keeps shedding jobs.
Upcoming Economic Data Releases and Events
October 2: US Employment Situation Report
October 14: US CPI
October 15: UK GDP (monthly estimate, August 2026)
October 16: Eurozone CPI (final September reading)
October 20: UK Labour Market Overview
October 21: UK CPI
October 29: US GDP (advance estimate, Q3 2026)
October 30: Eurozone GDP (preliminary flash estimate, Q3 2026)
In recent news:
Julius Probst, PhD
US economic activity accelerates to five-year high
Less than two months ago, we argued that the Federal Reserve is underestimating the strength of America’s economy. While many analysts attributed the rise in inflation to the oil shock, there were already signs earlier this year that the U.S. economy was also experiencing an increase in economy-wide spending. Although oil prices were clearly contributing to inflation, so was the acceleration in demand. More recent economic data releases have now vindicated this view: The latest labor market data shows that employment in the U.S. grew significantly faster than expected during the summer, with the six-month moving average of job growth accelerating to just over 100,000. More importantly, the composite PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) — a monthly indicator of economic activity — surged to 58 in September, its highest value since July 2021. One value does not yet make a trend, but the gradual rise began in the spring. The data now seems to indicate that the economy is currently as hot as it was during the post-pandemic recovery.
As we have pointed out before, there is increasing evidence that the AI economy is leading to a strengthening of economic activity, especially in the service sector. Tech and professional business services are benefiting the most as demand for their offerings is rising at the same time as worker productivity is increasing.
What is interesting, though, is that manufacturing is booming, too. The AI data center buildout is creating a surge in demand for construction equipment, power and cooling equipment, AI chips, and semiconductors. The manufacturing sector is thus one of the main beneficiaries of the approximately $1 trillion in capital expenditures on the AI economy, including data center construction across the country. Manufacturing PMI numbers not only show a surge in new orders and economic activity, but the employment PMI is now finally in positive territory again. This is another data point that confirms the gradual tightening of the labor market as the AI boom unfolds.
Growth in the Eurozone more robust than anticipated
The oil price shock was expected to significantly reduce growth in all Eurozone countries. Even as it is a clear negative, growth is holding up much better than expected, with economic momentum actually accelerating. As in the U.S., the AI boom probably plays a role while the Eurozone’s biggest economy — Germany — is benefiting from a more favorable export environment together with a surge in fiscal spending.
While employment conditions remain more favorable in Southern Europe, where growth is significantly stronger, a sentiment indicator for employment expectations shows a remarkable surge in Germany and for the entire Eurozone in recent months. It is therefore quite possible that hiring might accelerate slightly in the coming quarters despite the global headwinds.
Global interest rates are set to rise again
One trend to look out for: rising interest rates. The combination of higher inflationary pressures and stronger economic momentum inevitably means that central banks will have to hike interest rates as inflation continues to drift away from their targets.
The Fed and the European Central Bank (ECB) already hiked once in recent weeks, with the Bank of England (BoE) being on hold for now. However, financial markets expect that there will be several more interest rate hikes in the pipeline between now and early 2027: Today’s market prices suggest three for the U.S. and at least as many for the Eurozone. While needed to bring down inflation, higher interest rates could be problematic for consumers, the housing market, corporate borrowing, and even government finances. With public debt burdens at their highest level in decades and housing markets stretched as they are, central banks might need to be careful not to break things. Watch out!
